Analyst: Fall of ISIS puts Israel’s enemies on her borders
Brig. Gen. (ret) Michael Herzog foresees jihadists to the west and Hezbollah to the north-east
A leading analyst on Israel’s security has said the fall of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq could spell yet more trouble on two of Israel’s borders.
Retired Brigadier General Michael Herzog, an International Fellow at the Washington Institute who advised several Israeli defence ministers until recently, was speaking during a briefing organised by UK-Israel think-tank BICOM.
Herzog said the likely defeat of so-called Islamic State (ISIS) this year would push jihadist fighters into the Sinai, to Israel’s east, while a deal struck between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and supportive militias could see Hezbollah entrenched on Israel’s north-east border.
“After ISIS is defeated territorially in Iraq, Syria and Libya, the only functioning territorial stronghold they will have is in the Sinai,” he said.
“We can therefore expect the relocation of ISIS elements into the Sinai. There has been a war going on in the Sinai for several years with the Egyptians unable to defeat ISIS, and this movement will pose an increased challenge for the Egyptian regime and potentially for Israel.”
Meanwhile, Herzog said that both Israel and Jordan would be watching to see who fills the post-ISIS void left in southern Syria, with Assad likely to reward allies who fought with him during the country’s six-year civil war.
“The Syrian regime is already negotiating a deal with rebel groups that will enable the regime to regain control of the south,” he said.
“This may include allowing the Syrian regime’s allies – Iran, Hezbollah and other Shi’ite militias – a foothold in the south which they have been striving to achieve. If these groups are able to deploy in and operate out of southern Syria, they will pose a serious challenge to both Israel and Jordan.”
Herzog aligned himself with most other analysts in declaring a lack of clarity as to the role new U.S. President Donald Trump will take in the Middle East, but suggested that Trump will hope to “drive a wedge” between Russia and Iran.
“If Trump wants to push back on the Iranian role in Yemen or in Syria, or get the Iranians to stop the supply of weapons to Hezbollah it is not impossible that he will find some common ground with Russia,” said Herzog. “In any case, it may be that we see cooperation alongside competition between the US and Russia.”
Thank you for helping to make Jewish News the leading source of news and opinion for the UK Jewish community. Today we're asking for your invaluable help to continue putting our community first in everything we do.
For as little as £5 a month you can help sustain the vital work we do in celebrating and standing up for Jewish life in Britain.
Jewish News holds our community together and keeps us connected. Like a synagogue, it’s where people turn to feel part of something bigger. It also proudly shows the rest of Britain the vibrancy and rich culture of modern Jewish life.
You can make a quick and easy one-off or monthly contribution of £5, £10, £20 or any other sum you’re comfortable with.
100% of your donation will help us continue celebrating our community, in all its dynamic diversity...
Engaging
Being a community platform means so much more than producing a newspaper and website. One of our proudest roles is media partnering with our invaluable charities to amplify the outstanding work they do to help us all.
Celebrating
There’s no shortage of oys in the world but Jewish News takes every opportunity to celebrate the joys too, through projects like Night of Heroes, 40 Under 40 and other compelling countdowns that make the community kvell with pride.
Pioneering
In the first collaboration between media outlets from different faiths, Jewish News worked with British Muslim TV and Church Times to produce a list of young activists leading the way on interfaith understanding.
Campaigning
Royal Mail issued a stamp honouring Holocaust hero Sir Nicholas Winton after a Jewish News campaign attracted more than 100,000 backers. Jewish Newsalso produces special editions of the paper highlighting pressing issues including mental health and Holocaust remembrance.
Easy access
In an age when news is readily accessible, Jewish News provides high-quality content free online and offline, removing any financial barriers to connecting people.
Voice of our community to wider society
The Jewish News team regularly appears on TV, radio and on the pages of the national press to comment on stories about the Jewish community. Easy access to the paper on the streets of London also means Jewish News provides an invaluable window into the community for the country at large.
We hope you agree all this is worth preserving.
